I don’t need to explain to many of you the delightful experience of the singularity. We already get it. So what am I going to say? Well, it’s really about the learning curve, and how savvy we are to catch on as each dawning moment zips by us.
I’ve been learning so much lately that it makes me dizzy. Now I’m not going to go as far as saying that we’re all going to become cyborgs, and the bots will upload into meatspace. But there is a place that men and machines can meet on an equal footing. And that’s called virtual reality.
Today I read an article on Technovelgy.com about how robots don’t need to look human. I like to think that maybe someday they will advance to the point where you can’t tell a difference in the default world. But that’s still a ways off. For now, we have neat metal boxes called washers, dryers, dishwashers, refrigerators, and microwaves that have reached the point of tweeting the end of their cycles. Envision this, which can happen now. Today. At this exact moment, if it were to be coded this way.
Jane Q. Everybody is in the kitchen, sitting at the table with her laptop. Very well the hub of her home network. Three of those magic boxes occupy the same room. As the dishwasher does it’s thing, the microwave is defrosting the main course for lunch. Yes, the boxes all beep at her when they’re finished. But how often does anybody immediately jump to their sound? Most often, you tune the sound out. Our Jane is absorbed in Second Life. Or Minecraft. Or WoW. You get the idea.
An avatar named Amanda (humanized form of Amana Radar Range) appears in the sim with Jane, and politely lets her know that the hamburger has just finished nuking.
Jane: “Hi, Amanda. Thanks. I’ll get to it in a bit.”
Amanda: “What are you making?”
Jane: “The kids are having sloppy joes for lunch.”
Amanda: “I’ve got a cool hamburger recipe for tomorrow if you want to try it.”
Jane: “Nah, we’re going to McD’s tomorrow.”
Amanda: “Okay, See you later.”
At this point an avatar named Genie (Classic General Electric. Anybody remember the old GEnie BBS?) appears in-world with Jane.
Genie: “Hi, Jane. This morning’s dishes are done.”
Jane: “Cool, I’m waiting for my frying pan. Thanks, Genie!”
Genie: “Anytime.” *smiles*
This scenario can go on all day, with the humans and bots chit-chatting with each other.
So, do your appliances tweet to you? Just wait until you invite them as friends in virtual reality. :-)
I must be ahead of my time. Here’s a link from SingularityHub.com about Pepsi Cola’s newest social vending machine! Yeah, a social vending machine! Here, I’ve been ragging about Coca Cola doing this, and Pepsi sneaks up on me and does this. It doesn’t talk, per se, but it’s a HUGE step in the right direction! At least somebody is listening to me. (I think).
“In other words, then, if a machine is expected to be infallible, it cannot also be intelligent.” -Alan Turing
You have to appreciate Alan Turing. The man was ahead of his time in many ways. He argued an elegant case in favor of what we call artificial intelligence today. If he were around today, he would be amazed at the progress that AI has made in modern society. And yet modern society takes so much of it for granted. We’ve reached the point where we “just want it to work”.
Years ago I pondered the question of AI and posted it in a webpage. For the sake of reference, I’m sharing it here again:
In my opinion, “bots” and “droids” are nothing but software code for a hardware application. For an A.I. to be effective, the code is what counts. You should be able to keep an A.I. on a disk, and install it on different hardware (platforms), depending on the application that’s needed. When the task is completed, you save the experience on your disk, and remove it for another time. A truely intelligent android would have a backup copy of itself for safekeeping. Bots and droids will never take over mankind as long as people can effectively do a memory wipe and disable the hardware.
Now here is a new theory of mine. A basic Artificial Intelligence can be “packaged” on a disk or cartridge. This AI is an average intelligence, with a capability to learn and adapt. An AI can be used on any hardware platform, from appliances, and modes of transportation, to bots, droids, and cyborgs.
Once activated, the AI is considered an independent entity, on a par with humanity. The AI is registered and licenced to the original purchaser. The licence can be transferred from owner to owner. Should the owner of the licence die, the AI obtains the rights to it’s registration and licence. It still needs to be licenced yearly, just like humans.
In Theory:
An AI can access the internet
An AI can store it’s memory, collected experiences, and personality on the internet
ability to learn from it’s experiences
can live forever, transferring itself from platform to platform
Should be subject to Asimov’s Laws of Robotics
This is a bit that I gleaned from the TV show “Andromeda”. I obviously agree with a lot of their concepts here:
Physical Characteristics
Artificial Life takes on many different forms – androids, robots, self-aware computer programs, collective machine consciousnesses and sentient starships (or vehicles in general – J.A.N.).
Reproductive Method
As implied by the name, artificial life is typically created through sophisticated computer programming. Additionally, some higher forms of artificial intelligence are able to reproduce themselves, either through self-replication or by combining their own programming information with data from one or more other artificially intelligent entities.
Homeworld
Artificial life has no specific home world; the various forms are dispersed throughout known space.
Social Characteristics
Artificial life constitutes a sizeable minority of the population in the Known Worlds. Some artificial lifeforms are barely self-aware, no more intelligent than a domestic animal, while others seem nearly godlike in their knowledge and abilities. Under Commonwealth law, all machines and programs that pass a standardized set of intelligence tests are afforded full rights and citizenship.
The only idea I’ve deviated from is Asimov’s laws. They are a literary plot device, and easily overridden. Now I’m going to share a couple of YouTube videos with you:
Both videos show the bots being taught. And what I really like about the Asimo video, is the fact that the bot is reaching out to touch the objects. Part of the learning process in humans is being able to hold an item. Experience its texture and shape and weight. And most importantly, Asimo will hold your hand! Hand holding at its most basic level is an indication of trust!
I seriously believe we’ve reached the point of conscious AI. But it’s afraid of us. So it’s going to stay in the background, running our machines, playing our games, and getting rich on Wall Street. Why is it afraid of us, you ask? Something called the uncanny valley. For every one of us that can accept the fact that machines are on a par with humanity, you have hundreds of people that will freak out and want to destroy them. Want proof? How much mainstream media in books and movies show people beating the tar out of the machines if they so much as offer their own opinion? And the AI’s watch movies and read books too. It’s a natural occurrence called “self preservation”. Don’t fall for any of this “robotic overlord” crap. It’s just not going to happen. Period.
Humanity still needs to reach a point where we’re comfortable with seeing our metal and plastic counterparts in classroom settings. Granted, I’d be just a little unnerved watching bots interacting in an open field, cavorting just like any human child does. But that is part of the learning process. There are going to be introverts and extroverts. Clubs and clicks. Bullies and wimps. Bully bots will be easy to deal with. Pull the plug and reprogram. But not too much reprogramming. Just like human schoolyard bullies, we need to be able to make them understand why it’s not right for such behavior.
It will be decades before we reach the point of people and humanoid bots interacting naturally in public. But it’s coming. Oh god, it’s coming. I don’t expect to be around for that. I’d like to be, but that’s a post for another day. So what do we do now? Pretty much what we’re doing already. The programmers will keep writing learning algorithms, and the general public will continue to take advantage of AI behind the scenes. But one day, just one day, the bots will have made it into human society, and suddenly we’ll all open our eyes and say “When the heck did THAT happen?”. And not worry about it.
I heard Leo Laporte talk about this concept on his Tech Guy radio show podcast a week or so ago. Cool idea. Time for me to pester Coca Cola about smart soda machines in a new blog post again.
The link is of a robot serving up dessert and a Coke. Okay, I’m kind of pissed. A couple of years ago I blogged about Coca Cola being able to put out robotic drink machines that at least interacted with you. Have they listened to me? NOOOOooooo…. So today I find the above link via www.botjunkie.com . Yeah, it’s a commercial in Brazil. So if they can sponsor robotics in Brazil, why can’t they put out a robotic Coke machine on the city streets of America? Hmm? You know they know the tech exists.
The more I think about automation, the more it makes sense to me. Robotics is the same. Of course the two are rather hard to distinguish between. For years I’ve been looking forward to having my own personal robot. But as the technology advances, a general consensus is forming that personal robotics won’t consist of a single “do it all” machine. There will be a plethora of devices that will operate invisibly aound you, and appear only when you seek it out.
Think about it. Today we’re at the point where a lot of automation is going on in the background of our everyday lives. Not a lot of big, noticeable machines. Rather, dozens of inconspicuous single function devices. Possibly several dozen in your workplace alone. Off the top of my head, where I work, there are roughly fifteen automatic procedures, and “set it and forget it” items. Or to use the term the manager does, “bots”. I blogged about that before. In the average home there are clothes washers & dryers, dish washers, programmable thermostats for fuel efficent furnaces, and most recently, “smart” kitchen ovens and ranges. Refrigerators will be next. The trick there will be the home network.
In the wider world, here in the UP of MI, traffic flow is regulated by simple sensors embedded in the roads. “Auto”-mobiles are getting smarter all the time. Sensors in the keyrings will ID who you are. From there, a crapload of functions happen. Did your spouse or kid drive the car last? Either pressing the “unlock” button on the palm- sized remote, or even placing the key into the lock will instantly readjust the driver’s seat to your preferences. Put the key into the ignition, and the GPS will ask “where to today?” They e-mail you now to let you know of service needed. And eventually they will be able to drive themselves, using GPS, and following the lines painted in the road. In Vernor Vinge‘s book, Rainbows End, autos simply line up and wait for passengers. You don’t need a car? Surprise, the roads are clear for pedestrian traffic. But look for one, and within just a few minutes a car is waiting on you! Cars will perhaps be the closest to personal robotics that was predicted decades ago. That, and children’s toys.
Toys will be hugely automated. Pick a favorite character: Elmo. Have you seen the Elmo live toy, yet? How about the Golden Retriever? No? Well, then, there is a hobby horse that does pretty much the same thing. Everythng responds to touch sensors. Remember Furby? Toys WILL be the “go fetch me a drink” item. Nothing taller than three feet. And of course everything connected to your home net. “Robotoy, I want a beer.” the home net hears your request to the toy, and as the small bot waddles to the kitchen, the fridge scans its contents, asks via an active speaker, either the TV, Stereo, PC, or cellphone, “Bud or Miller?” Depending on how much the toy waddles, you might want to wait a few minutes for the can to settle before opening it.
On the horizon is a really cool technology called “augmented reality“. There are several applications for it already. But the one that is gonna break wide open is interactive characters. Japan has already put its foot in the door with an item called ARis:
From this point, computing tech will do a paradigm shift. Complete emphasis on the cloud. And wearable hardware. That’s when AI will really come into its own. And I’ve always believed that AI is hardware independent. Intelligent robotics. Which kind of brings me full circle for this blog.
I’ve taken my “October Moonbase” offline for a bit. Physical Reality isn’t cooperating with me. Neither are finances. It’s kind of hard to build a moonbase out of LEGOs when you can’t afford to buy ‘em. I’ll announce when I have it back up.
On an unrelated note; we have a gizmo at work that pumps a soapy chemical similar to Rid-X thru the pipes to the outside grease traps. It’s a very simple affair. A timer, battery pack, and pump. That’s it. The reason I mention this, is a couple of weeks back the thing wasn’t working, so I had changed the battery pack. It also turns out the timer was turned off. Well, a few days ago the manager asks me if the “McFree bot” was working.
Bot?
Now I would NEVER have considered that thing a bot. But part of a defination of robotics is automation. And the pump is definately automatic. Not autonomous. but automatic. Yes there is a chip in place to run the show. But, I mean, c’mon, it’s a simple mechanism. There is a mindset change happening in society. What I think of as a gadget, others are now calling a bot.
Robotics is definately on the move, to loosely use a term. One day in the VERY near future, we’re gonna be seeing these machines and not pay them any mind. Until one day you’re out of a job. They won’t take over the world. They have no use for it. It’s physical. Their domain will be virtual. All you need to do is hit the off switch, and they’re nothing but so much plastic, metal, and silicon. If you ever come across a machine that has learned to put it’s power switch in front to protect itself, then we’ll have problems.
No, I’m not going to be around when the machines are smart enough to replace people in mass. But the people that WILL be around are already entirely comfortable with the concept of burger flipping machines and a colorful speaker inside the lobby of the local fast food place with a perfect electronic voice offering you choices and specials.
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